House Prices: Where Are They Headed This Winter?
In a blog post last month, we projected that home values might actually begin to soften on a month-over-month basis throughout the winter. There are other expert analysts that are also notifying their readership of this possibility. Calculated Risk, in a post last week explained:
“The monthly Case-Shiller house price indexes will show month-to-month declines soon, probably starting with the October report to be released in late December. The CoreLogic Index has already started to decline on a month-to-month basis.”
Fiserv, another company that analyzes home prices, came to the same conclusion:
“We project a small, short-term price decline for many markets that recently experienced double-digit appreciation.”
This may seem counter to the headlines you have seen claiming home prices are on the rise. However, we must realize that there is seasonality to home price movements. Over the last few years, prices have increased in the spring through the early fall. They then soften throughout the winter. As Calculated Risk reveals:
“This is not a sign of impending doom – or another collapse in house prices – it is just the normal seasonal pattern.”
If you are thinking of selling your home in the next 6-8 months, you should realize that waiting may not ensure a higher price and perhaps may even result in a slightly lower sales price.